Everything I Warned About Is Happening

Back in December 2025, I released a presentation called “The 6 Waves Crashing Down on Australia.”

At the time, many people dismissed it.

“Property prices always go up.”

“China will save us again.”

“AI won’t replace professional jobs.”

“Government spending isn’t a problem.”

Well, here we are only a few months later — and many of those waves are now beginning to break on our shores simultaneously.

The issue is not just one economic challenge.

It’s the convergence of multiple structural pressures all hitting Australia at once.

And from my perspective, that changes everything for investors, business owners, advisers and families.

Wave 1 — Energy, Oil & Supply Chain Instability

One of the first issues I discussed was the impact of the Iran-US-Israel conflict and what that means for global supply chains.

Most Australians still haven’t fully felt the impact yet.

Why?

Because countries and industries are still drawing on reserves.

But eventually reserves run down.

And when they do, shortages begin flowing through the economy very quickly.

We are already seeing early pressure points in:

• Oil and diesel supply
• Fertilisers
• Plastics
• Transport costs
• Industrial gases including helium

People forget how critical helium actually is for manufacturing, medicine and technology.

The issue with supply shocks is there is always a lag — much like Covid.

At first everything appears manageable

.

Then suddenly shortages and price increases arrive all at once.

Australia remains highly dependent on global supply chains.

That dependency is now becoming a strategic weakness.

Wave 2 — Property Prices Turning Down

This was the one people laughed at most.

“Property always goes up.”

I’ve studied the work of Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson for many years, particularly the 18.6-year property cycle.

And if you look carefully at where we are in that cycle now, combined with higher taxation, affordability pressure and slowing economic activity, the signs are becoming increasingly obvious.

We are beginning to see:

• Slower clearance rates
• Reduced investor confidence
• Mortgage stress
• Higher holding costs
• Early-stage price weakness

Now combine that with another major factor:

AI-driven employment disruption.

That’s where things potentially become very serious.

Wave 3 — AI Replacing Jobs

This one is unfolding slowly — but it is absolutely happening.

Over the last few days, during our Tax Guru AI training sessions on the Gold Coast, we demonstrated incredible AI systems and automation tools.

The opportunities are enormous for people embracing AI strategically.

But for many middle-management and process-based roles, AI represents a major disruption.

Automation is coming faster than most people realise.

The recent uptick in unemployment is only the beginning.

The concern is this:

If highly leveraged middle-income earners begin losing jobs or income stability, property markets may face substantial pressure.

That creates the risk of:

• Mortgage stress
• Forced sales
• Reduced consumer spending
• Falling asset values

Again — these waves are converging.

Wave 4 — China Won’t Rescue Australia This Time

During the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, China effectively helped pull Australia through.

Massive Chinese demand for resources insulated Australia from much of the global pain.

This time looks very different.

China is increasingly focused inward:

• Securing its own supply chains
• Retaining strategic resources
• Protecting domestic production
• Managing its own economic slowdown

Australia cannot simply assume external demand will rescue the economy again.

That changes the equation significantly.

Wave 5 — NDIS & Aged Care Blowouts

This may be one of the largest structural budget problems Australia has ever faced.

Let’s start with the numbers.

The NDIS was projected to increase from around $55 billion to potentially $110 billion within several years.

At the same time, aged care spending is exploding.

And here’s the demographic reality:

The “Silent Generation” and war generation totalled approximately 2.5 million people.

We already struggle to provide sufficient aged care infrastructure for them.

Now the Baby Boomers are arriving.

There are over 5.2 million Baby Boomers.

The front end of that generation is now moving into their early 80s.

That means:

• More aged care demand
• More healthcare costs
• More pension pressure
• More infrastructure spending
• Fewer taxpayers supporting more retirees

This is not temporary.

It is structural.

Wave 6 — The Tax Grab

This was always coming.

Governments facing expenditure blowouts eventually move toward revenue expansion.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.

Examples include:

• Division 296 superannuation tax measures
• Proposed minimum tax frameworks for trusts
• Reduced capital gains concessions
• Increased scrutiny on structures
• Ongoing discussion around death taxes and wealth taxation

The political narrative is increasingly focused on “fairness.”

But in practice, many of these measures represent broad-based wealth taxation.

Importantly though, I believe much of the trust panic is overblown.

Because people misunderstand what trusts are actually for.

Trusts Were Never About Tax

If someone sold you a trust purely as a tax minimisation vehicle, they fundamentally misunderstood the purpose of trusts.

A properly structured Family Protection Trust is about:

• Protecting family wealth
• Protecting assets from litigation
• Divorce protection
• Intergenerational planning
• Business risk isolation
• Bloodline wealth protection

Tax outcomes matter.

But protection matters more.

And here’s the irony:

If individuals are eventually taxed at similar rates anyway, why would you hold appreciating assets personally without protection?

You wouldn’t.

That’s why trusts remain strategically powerful.

Bitcoin, Property & Taking Money Off The Table

Back in late 2025, when Bitcoin was around USD $128,000, I suggested investors consider taking some profit off the table.

Not because crypto is dead.

But because cycles matter.

And we may now be approaching a similar turning point in certain parts of the property market.

The issue is not whether assets recover long term.

The issue is liquidity and positioning during economic transition periods.

The Big Opportunity — SMSFs

Now here’s the strategic opportunity very few people are discussing.

In my view, SMSFs are emerging as one of the most powerful family wealth protection and tax planning vehicles available.

Why?

Because SMSFs still allow:

• Long-term investing
• Negative gearing
• Concessional tax treatment
• Potentially zero capital gains tax in pension phase
• Protected retirement structures

If property markets weaken significantly over the next several years, cashed-up SMSFs may have extraordinary opportunities to acquire high-quality established assets.

That’s where strategy matters.

Not fear.

Video: https://youtu.be/NTIrsPAi4Ao

Final Thoughts

The six waves are not isolated events.

They are interconnected.

Energy instability, AI disruption, demographic pressure, taxation expansion and property market weakness all feed into each other.

The key now is not panic.

The key is positioning.

Families, advisers and business owners who prepare early may emerge from this period significantly stronger than those who simply drift along hoping things return to “normal.”

Because I don’t think we’re going back to normal.

I think we’re entering an entirely new economic era.

— Grant Abbott